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                                                                                                                                                                          银河在线:国泰君安证券:信心提振 结构进击

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年04月15日 04:05 来源:【老品牌、信誉高】

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:国泰君安证券:信心提振 结构进击)

                                                                                                                                                                          货币创造超预期,背后是市场信心提升超预期。4月12日公布的金融数据便是很好的印证,市场对于经济恢复的信心大幅提振。面对大幅超预期的货币创造,后市两大问题待研判:信用底到来,盈利底什么时候来?机会在何处?

                                                                                                                                                                          信号一:信用底来了,盈利底还会远吗?3月的社融再次大幅超预期让我们确认信用低已经到来。那么,我们接下来的关注点便转向盈利底。从历史比较视角来看,我们将目光锁定在信用周期扩张早期,即已经看到信用底部,而宏观经济改善尚未明晰的阶段,我们发现中观改善到盈利的传导需要1-2个季度,盈利底的出现大概率在三季度。

                                                                                                                                                                          信号二:胜负手之二,结构下的进击。今年的胜负手之二是对后一阶段早周期结构性机会的把握。虽然短期宏观层面尚不能看到数据体现,但中观层面早周期领域的积极变化已经发生。随着市场转向盈利占主导的下半场,机构主流资金逐渐加强发力,资本支出、地产投资和耐用消费品为主导的早周期板块行情有望获得相对收益。不同于上半场资金驱动,主题炒作主导市场,下半场回归基本面超预期。从资产价格为度,虽然消费相对周期的估值位置仍在2003年以来的均值之下,但经历2015供给侧改革之后的周期品今非昔比,如果以2015年以来的均值来看,周期相对于消费的估值性价比正在凸显。

                                                                                                                                                                          胜负手的第二重切换,周期进击。而今,第二个胜负手已到来。我们认为,后续市场主线要从资金驱动的热点轮动,向基本面支撑的估值洼地切换,实际上近期市场业绩报告表现突出的板块表现较好,已经初步显示出市场对于盈利重视程度的加强。

                                                                                                                                                                          在此逻辑之下,持续推荐周期板块。中观层面早周期领域的积极变化已经发生,稳增长预期叠加低估值因素,周期板块将有明显表现,如建材、钢铁、地产等行业。其次,伴随基本面和业绩悲观预期释放,受益科技创新政策红利、科创板辐射以及社融大幅超预期,市场风险偏好继续修复,泛在电力物联网、5G、智能网联汽车、国企改革等概念板块将迎来表现机会。